서브메뉴
검색
CFE MK1: Conflict Forecasting Engine and Theory of Interstate Tension
CFE MK1: Conflict Forecasting Engine and Theory of Interstate Tension
상세정보
- 자료유형
- 학위논문 서양
- 최종처리일시
- 20250211152132
- ISBN
- 9798383692714
- DDC
- 320
- 서명/저자
- CFE MK1: Conflict Forecasting Engine and Theory of Interstate Tension
- 발행사항
- [Sl] : The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2024
- 발행사항
- Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2024
- 형태사항
- 168 p
- 주기사항
- Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 86-02, Section: A.
- 주기사항
- Advisor: Crescenzi, Mark J. C.
- 학위논문주기
- Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2024.
- 초록/해제
- 요약Interstate tension refers to the anticipation of increasingly conflictual interactions between states in the near term. It emerges from a complex interplay of three primary elements: Distrust, Fear, and Attention. Interstate tension is a pervasive reality in international interactions, but the phenomenon has yet to be definitively outlined, let alone quantified. In this dissertation, I propose that interstate tension can be understood by deconstructing the phenomenon into its core elements: Fear, Distrust, and Attention. Through detailed case studies and theoretical analysis, I highlight numerous scenarios that exacerbate interstate tension, such as the prospects of nuclear conflict and regional disputes. I then propose a novel method to quantify and monitor interstate tension in real time by leveraging the financial market's reaction to the signaling game between states.To empirically test and quantify this tension, I examine its impact on financial markets, specifically the trading volume of the EUR/USD pair. I find that the financial market's response to states' threats provides a measurable indicator of interstate tension. In the final chapter, I expand the hostile signaling trigger for interstate tension to incorporate both hostile and conciliatory statements. Here, I introduce the novel measure, Verbal Tension (VT). My analysis reveals a significant relationship between the nature of verbal interactions among states and the likelihood of militarized disputes.
- 일반주제명
- Political science
- 일반주제명
- Finance
- 키워드
- Signaling theory
- 키워드
- Verbal Tension
- 기타저자
- The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Political Science
- 기본자료저록
- Dissertations Abstracts International. 86-02A.
- 전자적 위치 및 접속
- 로그인 후 원문을 볼 수 있습니다.
MARC
008250123s2024 us c eng d■001000017163083
■00520250211152132
■006m o d
■007cr#unu||||||||
■020 ▼a9798383692714
■035 ▼a(MiAaPQ)AAI31483633
■040 ▼aMiAaPQ▼cMiAaPQ
■0820 ▼a320
■1001 ▼aLindsay, Anthony Sterling, Jr.
■24510▼aCFE MK1: Conflict Forecasting Engine and Theory of Interstate Tension
■260 ▼a[Sl]▼bThe University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill▼c2024
■260 1▼aAnn Arbor▼bProQuest Dissertations & Theses▼c2024
■300 ▼a168 p
■500 ▼aSource: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 86-02, Section: A.
■500 ▼aAdvisor: Crescenzi, Mark J. C.
■5021 ▼aThesis (Ph.D.)--The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2024.
■520 ▼aInterstate tension refers to the anticipation of increasingly conflictual interactions between states in the near term. It emerges from a complex interplay of three primary elements: Distrust, Fear, and Attention. Interstate tension is a pervasive reality in international interactions, but the phenomenon has yet to be definitively outlined, let alone quantified. In this dissertation, I propose that interstate tension can be understood by deconstructing the phenomenon into its core elements: Fear, Distrust, and Attention. Through detailed case studies and theoretical analysis, I highlight numerous scenarios that exacerbate interstate tension, such as the prospects of nuclear conflict and regional disputes. I then propose a novel method to quantify and monitor interstate tension in real time by leveraging the financial market's reaction to the signaling game between states.To empirically test and quantify this tension, I examine its impact on financial markets, specifically the trading volume of the EUR/USD pair. I find that the financial market's response to states' threats provides a measurable indicator of interstate tension. In the final chapter, I expand the hostile signaling trigger for interstate tension to incorporate both hostile and conciliatory statements. Here, I introduce the novel measure, Verbal Tension (VT). My analysis reveals a significant relationship between the nature of verbal interactions among states and the likelihood of militarized disputes.
■590 ▼aSchool code: 0153.
■650 4▼aPolitical science
■650 4▼aFinance
■653 ▼aConflict anticipation
■653 ▼aFinancial markets analysis
■653 ▼aInterstate tension
■653 ▼aMilitarized disputes
■653 ▼aSignaling theory
■653 ▼aVerbal Tension
■690 ▼a0601
■690 ▼a0501
■690 ▼a0508
■690 ▼a0615
■71020▼aThe University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill▼bPolitical Science.
■7730 ▼tDissertations Abstracts International▼g86-02A.
■790 ▼a0153
■791 ▼aPh.D.
■792 ▼a2024
■793 ▼aEnglish
■85640▼uhttp://www.riss.kr/pdu/ddodLink.do?id=T17163083▼nKERIS▼z이 자료의 원문은 한국교육학술정보원에서 제공합니다.
