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Financial Paradigm Shifts: Bitcoin's Future and Implications of Passive Investing
Financial Paradigm Shifts: Bitcoin's Future and Implications of Passive Investing
Financial Paradigm Shifts: Bitcoin's Future and Implications of Passive Investing

Detailed Information

자료유형  
 학위논문 서양
최종처리일시  
20250211152641
ISBN  
9798384025320
DDC  
658
저자명  
Bednarek, Pawel.
서명/저자  
Financial Paradigm Shifts: Bitcoins Future and Implications of Passive Investing
발행사항  
[Sl] : University of Pennsylvania, 2024
발행사항  
Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2024
형태사항  
117 p
주기사항  
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 86-02, Section: A.
주기사항  
Advisor: Jermann, Urban J.
학위논문주기  
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Pennsylvania, 2024.
초록/해제  
요약This dissertation consists of two distinct chapters, each exploring recent transformative shifts in economics and finance, with an emphasis on their long-term consequences.In the first chapter, I answer growing concerns pertaining to the rapid growth of passive investment strategies over the last two decades. I construct a rational expectations equilibrium model allowing investors to choose different modes of investment (active, passive, and delegated active), introduce agent heterogeneity, and estimate the model using data from 2000 to 2017. The model considers investment fees as exogenous, and variations in these fees are the main driver for changes in investor proportions. I find that the growth of passive investing did not increase the overall price level, thus contradicting the common ETF bubble hypothesis, which postulated that rapid growth in passive strategies may lead to the detachment of prices of these securities from fundamentals. Furthermore, the model suggests that this shift in investing has contributed to increasing asset price volatility, which is consistent with empirical findings. I estimate that about a tenth of current market volatility can be attributed to the rise of passive investing over the last two decades. It also resulted in diminished price informativeness due to weakened information acquisition. Further reduction in passive management fees will strengthen these effects. Reductions in fees associated with delegated active investing may have an ambiguous effect on the proportion of passive investing but will result in enhanced price volatility and reduced informativeness, akin to the dynamics observed in passive fee reductions.The second chapter examines the impact of the Bitcoin network's transition from mining subsidies to transaction fees on its long-term security and sustainability. The scheduled reductions in block rewards, known as halvings, lead to a decrease in Bitcoin's supply expansion rate. This shift means that the income of miners will eventually rely solely on transaction fees. I construct an overlapping generations model with a type of the Lagos-Wright structure, where users use Bitcoin to purchase a good that can only be acquired using this cryptocurrency. They compete for the inclusion of their transactions on the blockchain. I introduce the concept of real hash rate to analyze the network's security. The analysis suggests that unless there is a significant and permanent increase in on-chain activity, transaction fees will be insufficient to maintain current security levels. The paper projects potential security challenges starting around 2032 when miners' revenue produced by supply expansion does not support a non-zero Bitcoin price equilibrium. A simple inflationary policy, setting a fixed emission rate at about 1%, would provide greater sustainability and could alleviate the consequences of the limited adoption problem that Bitcoin is facing.
일반주제명  
Finance
일반주제명  
Public policy
키워드  
Bitcoin
키워드  
Investor proportions
키워드  
Cryptocurrency
키워드  
Mining
키워드  
Passive investment
기타저자  
University of Pennsylvania Economics
기본자료저록  
Dissertations Abstracts International. 86-02A.
전자적 위치 및 접속  
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MARC

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■035    ▼a(MiAaPQ)AAI31485224
■040    ▼aMiAaPQ▼cMiAaPQ
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■1001  ▼aBednarek,  Pawel.
■24510▼aFinancial  Paradigm  Shifts:  Bitcoin's  Future  and  Implications  of  Passive  Investing
■260    ▼a[Sl]▼bUniversity  of  Pennsylvania▼c2024
■260  1▼aAnn  Arbor▼bProQuest  Dissertations  &  Theses▼c2024
■300    ▼a117  p
■500    ▼aSource:  Dissertations  Abstracts  International,  Volume:  86-02,  Section:  A.
■500    ▼aAdvisor:  Jermann,  Urban  J.
■5021  ▼aThesis  (Ph.D.)--University  of  Pennsylvania,  2024.
■520    ▼aThis  dissertation  consists  of  two  distinct  chapters,  each  exploring  recent  transformative  shifts  in  economics  and  finance,  with  an  emphasis  on  their  long-term  consequences.In  the  first  chapter,  I  answer  growing  concerns  pertaining  to  the  rapid  growth  of  passive  investment  strategies  over  the  last  two  decades.  I  construct  a  rational  expectations  equilibrium  model  allowing  investors  to  choose  different  modes  of  investment  (active,  passive,  and  delegated  active),  introduce  agent  heterogeneity,  and  estimate  the  model  using  data  from  2000  to  2017.  The  model  considers  investment  fees  as  exogenous,  and  variations  in  these  fees  are  the  main  driver  for  changes  in  investor  proportions.  I  find  that  the  growth  of  passive  investing  did  not  increase  the  overall  price  level,  thus  contradicting  the  common  ETF  bubble  hypothesis,  which  postulated  that  rapid  growth  in  passive  strategies  may  lead  to  the  detachment  of  prices  of  these  securities  from  fundamentals.  Furthermore,  the  model  suggests  that  this  shift  in  investing  has  contributed  to  increasing  asset  price  volatility,  which  is  consistent  with  empirical  findings.  I  estimate  that  about  a  tenth  of  current  market  volatility  can  be  attributed  to  the  rise  of  passive  investing  over  the  last  two  decades.  It  also  resulted  in  diminished  price  informativeness  due  to  weakened  information  acquisition.  Further  reduction  in  passive  management  fees  will  strengthen  these  effects.  Reductions  in  fees  associated  with  delegated  active  investing  may  have  an  ambiguous  effect  on  the  proportion  of  passive  investing  but  will  result  in  enhanced  price  volatility  and  reduced  informativeness,  akin  to  the  dynamics  observed  in  passive  fee  reductions.The  second  chapter  examines  the  impact  of  the  Bitcoin  network's  transition  from  mining  subsidies  to  transaction  fees  on  its  long-term  security  and  sustainability.  The  scheduled  reductions  in  block  rewards,  known  as  halvings,  lead  to  a  decrease  in  Bitcoin's  supply  expansion  rate.  This  shift  means  that  the  income  of  miners  will  eventually  rely  solely  on  transaction  fees.  I  construct  an  overlapping  generations  model  with  a  type  of  the  Lagos-Wright  structure,  where  users  use  Bitcoin  to  purchase  a  good  that  can  only  be  acquired  using  this  cryptocurrency.  They  compete  for  the  inclusion  of  their  transactions  on  the  blockchain.  I  introduce  the  concept  of  real  hash  rate  to  analyze  the  network's  security.  The  analysis  suggests  that  unless  there  is  a  significant  and  permanent  increase  in  on-chain  activity,  transaction  fees  will  be  insufficient  to  maintain  current  security  levels.  The  paper  projects  potential  security  challenges  starting  around  2032  when  miners'  revenue  produced  by  supply  expansion  does  not  support  a  non-zero  Bitcoin  price  equilibrium.  A  simple  inflationary  policy,  setting  a  fixed  emission  rate  at  about  1%,  would  provide  greater  sustainability  and  could  alleviate  the  consequences  of  the  limited  adoption  problem  that  Bitcoin  is  facing.
■590    ▼aSchool  code:  0175.
■650  4▼aFinance
■650  4▼aPublic  policy
■653    ▼aBitcoin
■653    ▼aInvestor  proportions
■653    ▼aCryptocurrency
■653    ▼aMining
■653    ▼aPassive  investment
■690    ▼a0501
■690    ▼a0508
■690    ▼a0630
■71020▼aUniversity  of  Pennsylvania▼bEconomics.
■7730  ▼tDissertations  Abstracts  International▼g86-02A.
■790    ▼a0175
■791    ▼aPh.D.
■792    ▼a2024
■793    ▼aEnglish
■85640▼uhttp://www.riss.kr/pdu/ddodLink.do?id=T17163227▼nKERIS▼z이  자료의  원문은  한국교육학술정보원에서  제공합니다.

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