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Dynamics and Predictability of Marine Ecosystem Stressors
Dynamics and Predictability of Marine Ecosystem Stressors
상세정보
- 자료유형
- 학위논문 서양
- 최종처리일시
- 20260202103109
- ISBN
- 9798315730842
- DDC
- 577
- 저자명
- Mogen, Samuel C.
- 서명/저자
- Dynamics and Predictability of Marine Ecosystem Stressors
- 발행사항
- [Sl] : University of Colorado at Boulder, 2025
- 발행사항
- Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2025
- 형태사항
- 125 p
- 주기사항
- Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 86-11, Section: B.
- 주기사항
- Advisor: Lovenduski, Nicole S.
- 학위논문주기
- Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Colorado at Boulder, 2025.
- 초록/해제
- 요약Anthropogenic climate change is driving long-term ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation with ramifications for marine organisms and ecosystems. Alongside long-term changes, there is growing interest in the effects of short-term variability which can lead to extreme events that rapidly alter marine conditions, including marine heatwaves (MHW) and ocean acidification extremes (OAX). Relatively limited biogeochemical observations make these short-term changes hard to study, leading to the use of Earth System Models (ESMs) which provide valuable insights into biogeochemical changes and predictability. Here we focus on three research questions: (1) How do MHW affect regional biogeochemistry? (2) Can ESMs forecast surface and subsurface marine stressors? and (3) Can ESMs forecast marine extreme events (MHW, OAX)? We first focus on the regional biogeochemical impacts of the Blob, a notable MHW in the Northeast Pacific, using a combination of in-situ observations, observation-based products, and ESM reconstructions. We then use model output to estimate the dynamical drivers of biogeochemical changes associated with these MHWs. Next, we assess the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) to predict anomalies of surface and subsurface marine ecosystem stressors in Large Marine Ecosystems. Finally, we assess the ability of CESM SMYLE to skillfully forecast global MHW and OAX over the historical period and determine drivers of skill. We then utilize a CESM SMYLE forecast generated in late 2023 to assess the evolution of marine extremes in 2024. This work helps contextualize the impacts and predictability of marine ecosystem stressors and extremes in a changing climate.
- 일반주제명
- Environmental science
- 일반주제명
- Ecology
- 일반주제명
- Biogeochemistry
- 일반주제명
- Climate change
- 일반주제명
- Biological oceanography
- 키워드
- Marine extremes
- 키워드
- Oceanography
- 키워드
- Deoxygenation
- 기타저자
- University of Colorado at Boulder Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
- 기본자료저록
- Dissertations Abstracts International. 86-11B.
- 전자적 위치 및 접속
- 로그인 후 원문을 볼 수 있습니다.
MARC
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■00520260202103109
■006m o d
■007cr#unu||||||||
■020 ▼a9798315730842
■035 ▼a(MiAaPQ)AAI31935992
■040 ▼aMiAaPQ▼cMiAaPQ
■0820 ▼a577
■1001 ▼aMogen, Samuel C.▼0(orcid)0000-0003-3930-7424
■24510▼aDynamics and Predictability of Marine Ecosystem Stressors
■260 ▼a[Sl]▼bUniversity of Colorado at Boulder▼c2025
■260 1▼aAnn Arbor▼bProQuest Dissertations & Theses▼c2025
■300 ▼a125 p
■500 ▼aSource: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 86-11, Section: B.
■500 ▼aAdvisor: Lovenduski, Nicole S.
■5021 ▼aThesis (Ph.D.)--University of Colorado at Boulder, 2025.
■520 ▼aAnthropogenic climate change is driving long-term ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation with ramifications for marine organisms and ecosystems. Alongside long-term changes, there is growing interest in the effects of short-term variability which can lead to extreme events that rapidly alter marine conditions, including marine heatwaves (MHW) and ocean acidification extremes (OAX). Relatively limited biogeochemical observations make these short-term changes hard to study, leading to the use of Earth System Models (ESMs) which provide valuable insights into biogeochemical changes and predictability. Here we focus on three research questions: (1) How do MHW affect regional biogeochemistry? (2) Can ESMs forecast surface and subsurface marine stressors? and (3) Can ESMs forecast marine extreme events (MHW, OAX)? We first focus on the regional biogeochemical impacts of the Blob, a notable MHW in the Northeast Pacific, using a combination of in-situ observations, observation-based products, and ESM reconstructions. We then use model output to estimate the dynamical drivers of biogeochemical changes associated with these MHWs. Next, we assess the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) to predict anomalies of surface and subsurface marine ecosystem stressors in Large Marine Ecosystems. Finally, we assess the ability of CESM SMYLE to skillfully forecast global MHW and OAX over the historical period and determine drivers of skill. We then utilize a CESM SMYLE forecast generated in late 2023 to assess the evolution of marine extremes in 2024. This work helps contextualize the impacts and predictability of marine ecosystem stressors and extremes in a changing climate.
■590 ▼aSchool code: 0051.
■650 4▼aEnvironmental science
■650 4▼aEcology
■650 4▼aBiogeochemistry
■650 4▼aClimate change
■650 4▼aBiological oceanography
■653 ▼aClimate prediction
■653 ▼aEarth system science
■653 ▼aMarine extremes
■653 ▼aOceanography
■653 ▼aDeoxygenation
■690 ▼a0768
■690 ▼a0404
■690 ▼a0416
■690 ▼a0425
■690 ▼a0329
■71020▼aUniversity of Colorado at Boulder▼bAtmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.
■7730 ▼tDissertations Abstracts International▼g86-11B.
■790 ▼a0051
■791 ▼aPh.D.
■792 ▼a2025
■793 ▼aEnglish
■85640▼uhttp://www.riss.kr/pdu/ddodLink.do?id=T17356969▼nKERIS▼z이 자료의 원문은 한국교육학술정보원에서 제공합니다.
