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Essays in Household Finance and Empirical Macroeconomics
Essays in Household Finance and Empirical Macroeconomics
상세정보
- 자료유형
- 학위논문 서양
- 최종처리일시
- 20260202103608
- ISBN
- 9798288862939
- DDC
- 658
- 저자명
- Boctor, Valerie.
- 서명/저자
- Essays in Household Finance and Empirical Macroeconomics
- 발행사항
- [Sl] : University of California, Berkeley, 2025
- 발행사항
- Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2025
- 형태사항
- 95 p
- 주기사항
- Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 87-01, Section: A.
- 주기사항
- Advisor: Steinsson, Jon;Schoefer, Benjamin.
- 학위논문주기
- Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Berkeley, 2025.
- 초록/해제
- 요약This dissertation is composed of three chapters that cover a broad range of policy-relevant topics in household finance and empirical macroeconomics. The first chapter includes my job market paper, titled "Mortgage Forbearance and Financial Distress in the Long Run," which examines the causal effect of mortgage payment pauses during the Corona virus pandemic on household financial stability, measured in terms of mortgage performance and revolving credit stability. Using data from 500,000 consumer credit reports, I study the causal effects of mortgage forbearance under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act on household financial stability. Leveraging quasi-random variation in mortgage servicers' forbearance provision, I identify significant reductions in mortgage delinquency rates-up to 5 percentage points-and foreclosure rates by 1 percentage point, persisting three years post-forbearance. Additionally, the program had beneficial spillover effects on revolving credit stability, reducing credit card delinquencies by 2 percentage points and utilization rates by roughly 15 percentage points relative to the pre-pandemic period. Upon exiting forbearance, borrowers not only avoided financial 'rebound effects,' but also sustained improved financial stability for more than two years following the policy's implementation.The second chapter, coauthored with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion, and Michael Weber, explores how survey design affects the measurement of household macroeconomic expectations. We show that responses-particularly inflation expectations-are highly sensitive to question wording, even within a single 15-minute survey. These discrepancies raise concerns for policymakers relying on such data and underscore the need for further research to understand the underlying sources of measurement error.The third chapter, written in collaboration with Ryan Banerjee, Fabrizio Zampolli, and Aaron Mehrotra at the Bank for International Settlements, examines how the inflationary effects of fiscal deficits depend on a country's prevailing fiscal-monetary policy regime. Using a panel of advanced economies over four decades, we show that inflation-at-risk rises significantly under fiscally-led regimes. We calibrate an inflation-at-risk model and find that post-COVID-19 fiscal stimulus outcomes are broadly consistent with the predictions of fiscally-led regimes, highlighting the importance of institutional context in shaping macroeconomic risks.
- 일반주제명
- Finance
- 키워드
- Consumer
- 키워드
- Expectations
- 키워드
- Macroeconomics
- 키워드
- Mortgages
- 키워드
- Policy
- 기타저자
- University of California, Berkeley Economics
- 기본자료저록
- Dissertations Abstracts International. 87-01A.
- 전자적 위치 및 접속
- 로그인 후 원문을 볼 수 있습니다.
MARC
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■00520260202103608
■006m o d
■007cr#unu||||||||
■020 ▼a9798288862939
■035 ▼a(MiAaPQ)AAI32043033
■040 ▼aMiAaPQ▼cMiAaPQ
■0820 ▼a658
■1001 ▼aBoctor, Valerie.
■24510▼aEssays in Household Finance and Empirical Macroeconomics
■260 ▼a[Sl]▼bUniversity of California, Berkeley▼c2025
■260 1▼aAnn Arbor▼bProQuest Dissertations & Theses▼c2025
■300 ▼a95 p
■500 ▼aSource: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 87-01, Section: A.
■500 ▼aAdvisor: Steinsson, Jon;Schoefer, Benjamin.
■5021 ▼aThesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Berkeley, 2025.
■520 ▼aThis dissertation is composed of three chapters that cover a broad range of policy-relevant topics in household finance and empirical macroeconomics. The first chapter includes my job market paper, titled "Mortgage Forbearance and Financial Distress in the Long Run," which examines the causal effect of mortgage payment pauses during the Corona virus pandemic on household financial stability, measured in terms of mortgage performance and revolving credit stability. Using data from 500,000 consumer credit reports, I study the causal effects of mortgage forbearance under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act on household financial stability. Leveraging quasi-random variation in mortgage servicers' forbearance provision, I identify significant reductions in mortgage delinquency rates-up to 5 percentage points-and foreclosure rates by 1 percentage point, persisting three years post-forbearance. Additionally, the program had beneficial spillover effects on revolving credit stability, reducing credit card delinquencies by 2 percentage points and utilization rates by roughly 15 percentage points relative to the pre-pandemic period. Upon exiting forbearance, borrowers not only avoided financial 'rebound effects,' but also sustained improved financial stability for more than two years following the policy's implementation.The second chapter, coauthored with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion, and Michael Weber, explores how survey design affects the measurement of household macroeconomic expectations. We show that responses-particularly inflation expectations-are highly sensitive to question wording, even within a single 15-minute survey. These discrepancies raise concerns for policymakers relying on such data and underscore the need for further research to understand the underlying sources of measurement error.The third chapter, written in collaboration with Ryan Banerjee, Fabrizio Zampolli, and Aaron Mehrotra at the Bank for International Settlements, examines how the inflationary effects of fiscal deficits depend on a country's prevailing fiscal-monetary policy regime. Using a panel of advanced economies over four decades, we show that inflation-at-risk rises significantly under fiscally-led regimes. We calibrate an inflation-at-risk model and find that post-COVID-19 fiscal stimulus outcomes are broadly consistent with the predictions of fiscally-led regimes, highlighting the importance of institutional context in shaping macroeconomic risks.
■590 ▼aSchool code: 0028.
■650 4▼aFinance
■653 ▼aConsumer
■653 ▼aExpectations
■653 ▼aHousehold finance
■653 ▼aMacroeconomics
■653 ▼aMortgages
■653 ▼aPolicy
■690 ▼a0501
■690 ▼a0511
■690 ▼a0508
■71020▼aUniversity of California, Berkeley▼bEconomics.
■7730 ▼tDissertations Abstracts International▼g87-01A.
■790 ▼a0028
■791 ▼aPh.D.
■792 ▼a2025
■793 ▼aEnglish
■85640▼uhttp://www.riss.kr/pdu/ddodLink.do?id=T17357851▼nKERIS▼z이 자료의 원문은 한국교육학술정보원에서 제공합니다.
