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Deep Probabilistic Modeling for Causal Inference and Decision Making
Deep Probabilistic Modeling for Causal Inference and Decision Making
Deep Probabilistic Modeling for Causal Inference and Decision Making

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자료유형  
 학위논문 서양
최종처리일시  
20260202103118
ISBN  
9798288861840
DDC  
574
저자명  
Wu, Yulun.
서명/저자  
Deep Probabilistic Modeling for Causal Inference and Decision Making
발행사항  
[Sl] : University of California, Berkeley, 2025
발행사항  
Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2025
형태사항  
106 p
주기사항  
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 87-01, Section: B.
주기사항  
Advisor: Hubbard, Alan Edward.
학위논문주기  
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Berkeley, 2025.
초록/해제  
요약In my dissertation, I propose novel deep probabilistic modeling approaches in various subfields of causal inference and decision making, specifically, true counterfactual inference and sequential design of graph objects.Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and covariates are relatively limited. In this case, to predict one's outcomes under counterfactual treatments, it is crucial to leverage individual information contained in the observed outcome in addition to the covariates. Prior works using variational inference in counterfactual generative modeling have been focusing on neural adaptations and model variants within the conditional variational autoencoder formulation, which I argue is fundamentally ill-suited to the notion of counterfactual in causal inference. In this work, I present a novel variational Bayesian causal inference framework and its theoretical backings to properly handle counterfactual generative modeling tasks, through which we are able to conduct counterfactual supervision end-to-end during training without any counterfactual samples, and encourage disentangled exogenous noise abduction that aids the correct identification of causal effect in counterfactual generations. In addition, I present the efficient influence function and a scheme for robust marginal and heterogeneous effect estimation within this framework. In experiments, I demonstrate the advantage of this framework compared to state-of-the-art models in counterfactual generative modeling on multiple benchmarks.In particular, predicting counterfactual responses of a cell under drug/gene perturbations may bring important benefits to drug discovery and personalized therapeutics. In this work, I present a novel graph variational Bayesian causal inference framework to predict a cell's gene expressions under counterfactual perturbations (perturbations that this cell did not factually receive), leveraging information representing biological knowledge in the form of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) to aid individualized cellular response predictions. Aiming at a data-adaptive GRN, I also present an adjacency matrix updating technique for graph convolutional networks and used it to refine GRNs during pre-training, which generated more insights on gene relations and enhanced model performance. With extensive experiments, I exhibited the advantage of this approach over state-of-the-art deep learning models for individual response prediction.In addition, to directly tackle drug discovery tasks, I propose Distilled Graph Attention Policy Network (DGAPN), a reinforcement learning model to generate novel graph-structured chemical representations that optimize user-defined objectives by efficiently navigating a physically constrained domain. The framework is examined on the task of generating molecules that are designed to bind, noncovalently, to functional sites of SARS-CoV-2 proteins. I present a spatial Graph Attention (sGAT) mechanism that leverages self-attention over both node and edge attributes as well as encoding the spatial structure - this capability is of considerable interest in synthetic biology and drug discovery. An attentional policy network is introduced to learn the decision rules for a dynamic, fragment-based chemical environment, and state-of-the-art policy gradient techniques are employed to train the network with stability. Exploration is driven by the stochasticity of the action space design and the innovation reward bonuses learned and proposed by random network distillation. In experiments, this framework achieved outstanding results compared to state-of-the-art algorithms, while reducing the complexity of paths to chemical synthesis.
일반주제명  
Biostatistics
일반주제명  
Computer engineering
일반주제명  
Computer science
키워드  
Causal inference
키워드  
Counterfactual inference
키워드  
Decision making
키워드  
Deep probabilistic modeling
키워드  
Graph neural networks
키워드  
Reinforcement learning
기타저자  
University of California, Berkeley Biostatistics
기본자료저록  
Dissertations Abstracts International. 87-01B.
전자적 위치 및 접속  
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MARC

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■1001  ▼aWu,  Yulun.
■24510▼aDeep  Probabilistic  Modeling  for  Causal  Inference  and  Decision  Making
■260    ▼a[Sl]▼bUniversity  of  California,  Berkeley▼c2025
■260  1▼aAnn  Arbor▼bProQuest  Dissertations  &  Theses▼c2025
■300    ▼a106  p
■500    ▼aSource:  Dissertations  Abstracts  International,  Volume:  87-01,  Section:  B.
■500    ▼aAdvisor:  Hubbard,  Alan  Edward.
■5021  ▼aThesis  (Ph.D.)--University  of  California,  Berkeley,  2025.
■520    ▼aIn  my  dissertation,  I  propose  novel  deep  probabilistic  modeling  approaches  in  various  subfields  of  causal  inference  and  decision  making,  specifically,  true  counterfactual  inference  and  sequential  design  of  graph  objects.Estimating  an  individual's  counterfactual  outcomes  under  interventions  is  a  challenging  task  for  traditional  causal  inference  and  supervised  learning  approaches  when  the  outcome  is  high-dimensional  (e.g.  gene  expressions,  facial  images)  and  covariates  are  relatively  limited.  In  this  case,  to  predict  one's  outcomes  under  counterfactual  treatments,  it  is  crucial  to  leverage  individual  information  contained  in  the  observed  outcome  in  addition  to  the  covariates.  Prior  works  using  variational  inference  in  counterfactual  generative  modeling  have  been  focusing  on  neural  adaptations  and  model  variants  within  the  conditional  variational  autoencoder  formulation,  which  I  argue  is  fundamentally  ill-suited  to  the  notion  of  counterfactual  in  causal  inference.  In  this  work,  I  present  a  novel  variational  Bayesian  causal  inference  framework  and  its  theoretical  backings  to  properly  handle  counterfactual  generative  modeling  tasks,  through  which  we  are  able  to  conduct  counterfactual  supervision  end-to-end  during  training  without  any  counterfactual  samples,  and  encourage  disentangled  exogenous  noise  abduction  that  aids  the  correct  identification  of  causal  effect  in  counterfactual  generations.  In  addition,  I  present  the  efficient  influence  function  and  a  scheme  for  robust  marginal  and  heterogeneous  effect  estimation  within  this  framework.  In  experiments,  I  demonstrate  the  advantage  of  this  framework  compared  to  state-of-the-art  models  in  counterfactual  generative  modeling  on  multiple  benchmarks.In  particular,  predicting  counterfactual  responses  of  a  cell  under  drug/gene  perturbations  may  bring  important  benefits  to  drug  discovery  and  personalized  therapeutics.  In  this  work,  I  present  a  novel  graph  variational  Bayesian  causal  inference  framework  to  predict  a  cell's  gene  expressions  under  counterfactual  perturbations  (perturbations  that  this  cell  did  not  factually  receive),  leveraging  information  representing  biological  knowledge  in  the  form  of  gene  regulatory  networks  (GRNs)  to  aid  individualized  cellular  response  predictions.  Aiming  at  a  data-adaptive  GRN,  I  also  present  an  adjacency  matrix  updating  technique  for  graph  convolutional  networks  and  used  it  to  refine  GRNs  during  pre-training,  which  generated  more  insights  on  gene  relations  and  enhanced  model  performance.  With  extensive  experiments,  I  exhibited  the  advantage  of  this  approach  over  state-of-the-art  deep  learning  models  for  individual  response  prediction.In  addition,  to  directly  tackle  drug  discovery  tasks,  I  propose  Distilled  Graph  Attention  Policy  Network  (DGAPN),  a  reinforcement  learning  model  to  generate  novel  graph-structured  chemical  representations  that  optimize  user-defined  objectives  by  efficiently  navigating  a  physically  constrained  domain.  The  framework  is  examined  on  the  task  of  generating  molecules  that  are  designed  to  bind,  noncovalently,  to  functional  sites  of  SARS-CoV-2  proteins.  I  present  a  spatial  Graph  Attention  (sGAT)  mechanism  that  leverages  self-attention  over  both  node  and  edge  attributes  as  well  as  encoding  the  spatial  structure  -  this  capability  is  of  considerable  interest  in  synthetic  biology  and  drug  discovery.  An  attentional  policy  network  is  introduced  to  learn  the  decision  rules  for  a  dynamic,  fragment-based  chemical  environment,  and  state-of-the-art  policy  gradient  techniques  are  employed  to  train  the  network  with  stability.  Exploration  is  driven  by  the  stochasticity  of  the  action  space  design  and  the  innovation  reward  bonuses  learned  and  proposed  by  random  network  distillation.  In  experiments,  this  framework  achieved  outstanding  results  compared  to  state-of-the-art  algorithms,  while  reducing  the  complexity  of  paths  to  chemical  synthesis.
■590    ▼aSchool  code:  0028.
■650  4▼aBiostatistics
■650  4▼aComputer  engineering
■650  4▼aComputer  science
■653    ▼aCausal  inference
■653    ▼aCounterfactual  inference
■653    ▼aDecision  making
■653    ▼aDeep  probabilistic  modeling
■653    ▼aGraph  neural  networks
■653    ▼aReinforcement  learning
■690    ▼a0308
■690    ▼a0984
■690    ▼a0464
■71020▼aUniversity  of  California,  Berkeley▼bBiostatistics.
■7730  ▼tDissertations  Abstracts  International▼g87-01B.
■790    ▼a0028
■791    ▼aPh.D.
■792    ▼a2025
■793    ▼aEnglish
■85640▼uhttp://www.riss.kr/pdu/ddodLink.do?id=T17357021▼nKERIS▼z이  자료의  원문은  한국교육학술정보원에서  제공합니다.

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