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Essays on Inflation Expectations
Essays on Inflation Expectations
상세정보
- 자료유형
- 학위논문 서양
- 최종처리일시
- 20260202103146
- ISBN
- 9798288864469
- DDC
- 339.47
- 서명/저자
- Essays on Inflation Expectations
- 발행사항
- [Sl] : University of California, Berkeley, 2025
- 발행사항
- Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2025
- 형태사항
- 156 p
- 주기사항
- Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 87-01, Section: A.
- 주기사항
- Advisor: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy.
- 학위논문주기
- Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Berkeley, 2025.
- 초록/해제
- 요약This dissertation studies how information shapes inflation expectations and how these inflation expectations subsequently affect the economic decisions of firms and households. Chapter 1 (with Hassan Afrouzi, Olivier Coibion, Serafin Frache, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Saten Kumar, Rodrigo Lluberas, Brent Meyer, Jorge Ponce, Tiziano Ropele, and Michael Weber) inquiries how a changing inflation environment alters the learning process of individuals. Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms became more attentive and informed about publicly available news about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.In Chapter 2, I go one step further and use the exogenous variation in belief from the RCTs from U.S. household surveys to show that household spending responses to exogenous changes in inflation expectations depend on the inflation environment. In times of low inflation, higher inflation expectations arising from information treatments lead households to reduce their consumption of durable goods (the negative income/uncertainty effect dominates). In contrast, in times of high inflation, I find a sharp positive effect on durable spending after an exogenous shock to inflation expectations (intertemporal substitution effect dominates).Finally, Chapter 3 (with Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko) studies how firms' inflation expectations are formed as well as their use for policymaking. We introduce a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, and we document key stylized facts involving what U.S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations displays unique dynamics, distinct from those of households and professional forecasters. By any typical definition of "anchored" expectations, the inflation expectations of U.S. managers in a low-inflation environment appear far from anchored, much like those of households. And like households, U.S. managers are largely uninformed about recent aggregate inflation dynamics or monetary policy.
- 키워드
- Consumption
- 키워드
- Inattention
- 키워드
- Surveys
- 기타저자
- University of California, Berkeley Economics
- 기본자료저록
- Dissertations Abstracts International. 87-01A.
- 전자적 위치 및 접속
- 로그인 후 원문을 볼 수 있습니다.
MARC
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■020 ▼a9798288864469
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■040 ▼aMiAaPQ▼cMiAaPQ
■0820 ▼a339.47
■1001 ▼aCandia Gonzalez, Bernardo Andres.
■24510▼aEssays on Inflation Expectations
■260 ▼a[Sl]▼bUniversity of California, Berkeley▼c2025
■260 1▼aAnn Arbor▼bProQuest Dissertations & Theses▼c2025
■300 ▼a156 p
■500 ▼aSource: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 87-01, Section: A.
■500 ▼aAdvisor: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy.
■5021 ▼aThesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Berkeley, 2025.
■520 ▼aThis dissertation studies how information shapes inflation expectations and how these inflation expectations subsequently affect the economic decisions of firms and households. Chapter 1 (with Hassan Afrouzi, Olivier Coibion, Serafin Frache, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Saten Kumar, Rodrigo Lluberas, Brent Meyer, Jorge Ponce, Tiziano Ropele, and Michael Weber) inquiries how a changing inflation environment alters the learning process of individuals. Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms became more attentive and informed about publicly available news about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.In Chapter 2, I go one step further and use the exogenous variation in belief from the RCTs from U.S. household surveys to show that household spending responses to exogenous changes in inflation expectations depend on the inflation environment. In times of low inflation, higher inflation expectations arising from information treatments lead households to reduce their consumption of durable goods (the negative income/uncertainty effect dominates). In contrast, in times of high inflation, I find a sharp positive effect on durable spending after an exogenous shock to inflation expectations (intertemporal substitution effect dominates).Finally, Chapter 3 (with Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko) studies how firms' inflation expectations are formed as well as their use for policymaking. We introduce a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, and we document key stylized facts involving what U.S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations displays unique dynamics, distinct from those of households and professional forecasters. By any typical definition of "anchored" expectations, the inflation expectations of U.S. managers in a low-inflation environment appear far from anchored, much like those of households. And like households, U.S. managers are largely uninformed about recent aggregate inflation dynamics or monetary policy.
■590 ▼aSchool code: 0028.
■653 ▼aConsumption
■653 ▼aInattention
■653 ▼aInflation expectations
■653 ▼aSurveys
■653 ▼aRandomized control trials
■690 ▼a0501
■690 ▼a0511
■71020▼aUniversity of California, Berkeley▼bEconomics.
■7730 ▼tDissertations Abstracts International▼g87-01A.
■790 ▼a0028
■791 ▼aPh.D.
■792 ▼a2025
■793 ▼aSpanish
■85640▼uhttp://www.riss.kr/pdu/ddodLink.do?id=T17357196▼nKERIS▼z이 자료의 원문은 한국교육학술정보원에서 제공합니다.
