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Heat and Hearts: Computational Phenotyping of Cardiovascular Disease in the Context of Extreme Heat
Heat and Hearts: Computational Phenotyping of Cardiovascular Disease in the Context of Ext...
Heat and Hearts: Computational Phenotyping of Cardiovascular Disease in the Context of Extreme Heat

상세정보

자료유형  
 학위논문 서양
최종처리일시  
20260202104808
ISBN  
9798291588956
DDC  
610
저자명  
Graffy, Peter M. C.
서명/저자  
Heat and Hearts: Computational Phenotyping of Cardiovascular Disease in the Context of Extreme Heat
발행사항  
[Sl] : Northwestern University, 2025
발행사항  
Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2025
형태사항  
200 p
주기사항  
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 87-03, Section: B.
주기사항  
Advisor: Allen, Norrina B.;Kho, Abel N.
학위논문주기  
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Northwestern University, 2025.
초록/해제  
요약Climate change and global warming are considered public health and medical crises in the United States (U.S.) with significant projected morbidity and mortality this century as temperatures rapidly increase. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is currently the largest burden on our healthcare infrastructure with nearly 50% of U.S. adults living with CVD and more than 70% at an elevated risk of a CV event due to comorbid risk factors. Extreme heat exposure is a known exacerbator of CVD with the risk of cardiac arrest, heart failure, and other heart-related outcomes increasing 10-30% for every degree centigrade above regional thresholds. Certain sociodemographic categories and clinical characteristics promote susceptibility to heat-related CVD (HRCVD). Yet, the identification of populations most vulnerable to HRCVD remains methodologically underdeveloped, particularly at both the individual and community scales.Chicago, the site of one of the deadliest heatwaves in U.S. history in 1995, is projected to experience the greatest increase in temperature-related mortality among major US cities by 2090. A substantial share of future heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to stem from cardiovascular disease, due to the confluence of physiological vulnerability and environmental stress. While prior studies have examined either community-level or individual-level modifiers of the heat-CVD association, none have integrated both dimensions-limiting our understanding of joint or interacting risk factors. Recent advances in machine learning offer powerful tools for quantifying heat exposure and identifying complex constellations of clinical and ecological predictors of CVD risk. By leveraging these methods to develop computational phenotypes across both community areas and individuals, this work aims to identify those most vulnerable to CVD events during extreme heat, enabling more precise and context-sensitive public health interventions.This dissertation presents a multi-level, computational approach to phenotyping HRCVD, integrating environmental exposure data with clinical, demographic, and spatial information in Chicago from 2010 to 2023. This work begins with an introduction that highlights the importance of heat-health studies and the complexity of the methods therein. Chapter 1 ends with a scoping review of the methodologies and study designs used in heat-health studies from across the world. In Chapter 2, I explore the temperature estimate tools that are most appropriate for characterizing extreme heat exposure in Chicago and demonstrate that suitability of Daymet for integration with health data for phenotype development. In Chapter 3, I employ ecological models at the Chicago community area level using generalized additive modeling and spatial clustering to quantify critical thresholds for excess HRCVD morbidity and mortality across all 77 community areas. These analyses identify geographic heterogeneity in heat vulnerability and demonstrate the modifying role of sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors. At the individual level, in Chapter 4 I leverage a longitudinal cohort of over 100,000 geocoded Chicago patients from a multi-institutional electronic health record (EHR) to define HRCVD phenotypes based on structured EHR data. Using regularized regression, interaction modeling, and phenome-wide association studies, I isolate key features associated with increased heat sensitivity to develop and validate a proof-of-concept HRCVD nomogram for calculating individual HRCVD risk. Together, these findings advance a framework for characterizing heat-related cardiovascular risk using computational phenotyping methods.The findings in these chapters support our original hypotheses that both community-level conditions and individual-level clinical factors independently and jointly modify the relationship between heat exposure and cardiovascular events. Community areas with greater social vulnerability experienced higher excess mortality during heat events, consistent with the hypothesis that neighborhood context plays a critical role in population-level susceptibility. At the same time, individual-level analyses confirmed that prior clinical features contribute significantly to HRCVD risk; some of which is known in the literature and some of which represent novel findings. Together, these results demonstrate the value of integrating ecological and clinical data using computational phenotyping to improve risk stratification and guide targeted prevention efforts. By bridging ecological and patient-level perspectives, this work supports targeted public health strategies and clinical interventions that can better mitigate the cardiovascular impacts of a warming climate.
일반주제명  
Medicine
일반주제명  
Public health
일반주제명  
Environmental health
키워드  
Cardiovascular disease
키워드  
Climate change
키워드  
Chicago
키워드  
Health data
키워드  
Computational phenotyping
기타저자  
Northwestern University Health Sciences Integrated PhD Program
기본자료저록  
Dissertations Abstracts International. 87-03B.
전자적 위치 및 접속  
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■1001  ▼aGraffy,  Peter  M.  C.▼0(orcid)0000-0002-2156-7175
■24510▼aHeat  and  Hearts:  Computational  Phenotyping  of  Cardiovascular  Disease  in  the  Context  of  Extreme  Heat
■260    ▼a[Sl]▼bNorthwestern  University▼c2025
■260  1▼aAnn  Arbor▼bProQuest  Dissertations  &  Theses▼c2025
■300    ▼a200  p
■500    ▼aSource:  Dissertations  Abstracts  International,  Volume:  87-03,  Section:  B.
■500    ▼aAdvisor:  Allen,  Norrina  B.;Kho,  Abel  N.
■5021  ▼aThesis  (Ph.D.)--Northwestern  University,  2025.
■520    ▼aClimate  change  and  global  warming  are  considered  public  health  and  medical  crises  in  the  United  States  (U.S.)  with  significant  projected  morbidity  and  mortality  this  century  as  temperatures  rapidly  increase.  Cardiovascular  disease  (CVD)  is  currently  the  largest  burden  on  our  healthcare  infrastructure  with  nearly  50%  of  U.S.  adults  living  with  CVD  and  more  than  70%  at  an  elevated  risk  of  a  CV  event  due  to  comorbid  risk  factors.  Extreme  heat  exposure  is  a  known  exacerbator  of  CVD  with  the  risk  of  cardiac  arrest,  heart  failure,  and  other  heart-related  outcomes  increasing  10-30%  for  every  degree  centigrade  above  regional  thresholds.  Certain  sociodemographic  categories  and  clinical  characteristics  promote  susceptibility  to  heat-related  CVD  (HRCVD).  Yet,  the  identification  of  populations  most  vulnerable  to  HRCVD  remains  methodologically  underdeveloped,  particularly  at  both  the  individual  and  community  scales.Chicago,  the  site  of  one  of  the  deadliest  heatwaves  in  U.S.  history  in  1995,  is  projected  to  experience  the  greatest  increase  in  temperature-related  mortality  among  major  US  cities  by  2090.  A  substantial  share  of  future  heat-related  morbidity  and  mortality  is  expected  to  stem  from  cardiovascular  disease,  due  to  the  confluence  of  physiological  vulnerability  and  environmental  stress.  While  prior  studies  have  examined  either  community-level  or  individual-level  modifiers  of  the  heat-CVD  association,  none  have  integrated  both  dimensions-limiting  our  understanding  of  joint  or  interacting  risk  factors.  Recent  advances  in  machine  learning  offer  powerful  tools  for  quantifying  heat  exposure  and  identifying  complex  constellations  of  clinical  and  ecological  predictors  of  CVD  risk.  By  leveraging  these  methods  to  develop  computational  phenotypes  across  both  community  areas  and  individuals,  this  work  aims  to  identify  those  most  vulnerable  to  CVD  events  during  extreme  heat,  enabling  more  precise  and  context-sensitive  public  health  interventions.This  dissertation  presents  a  multi-level,  computational  approach  to  phenotyping  HRCVD,  integrating  environmental  exposure  data  with  clinical,  demographic,  and  spatial  information  in  Chicago  from  2010  to  2023.  This  work  begins  with  an  introduction  that  highlights  the  importance  of  heat-health  studies  and  the  complexity  of  the  methods  therein.  Chapter  1  ends  with  a  scoping  review  of  the  methodologies  and  study  designs  used  in  heat-health  studies  from  across  the  world.  In  Chapter  2,  I  explore  the  temperature  estimate  tools  that  are  most  appropriate  for  characterizing  extreme  heat  exposure  in  Chicago  and  demonstrate  that  suitability  of  Daymet  for  integration  with  health  data  for  phenotype  development.  In  Chapter  3,  I  employ  ecological  models  at  the  Chicago  community  area  level  using  generalized  additive  modeling  and  spatial  clustering  to  quantify  critical  thresholds  for  excess  HRCVD  morbidity  and  mortality  across  all  77  community  areas.  These  analyses  identify  geographic  heterogeneity  in  heat  vulnerability  and  demonstrate  the  modifying  role  of  sociodemographic  and  socioeconomic  factors.  At  the  individual  level,  in  Chapter  4  I  leverage  a  longitudinal  cohort  of  over  100,000  geocoded  Chicago  patients  from  a  multi-institutional  electronic  health  record  (EHR)  to  define  HRCVD  phenotypes  based  on  structured  EHR  data.  Using  regularized  regression,  interaction  modeling,  and  phenome-wide  association  studies,  I  isolate  key  features  associated  with  increased  heat  sensitivity  to  develop  and  validate  a  proof-of-concept  HRCVD  nomogram  for  calculating  individual  HRCVD  risk.  Together,  these  findings  advance  a  framework  for  characterizing  heat-related  cardiovascular  risk  using  computational  phenotyping  methods.The  findings  in  these  chapters  support  our  original  hypotheses  that  both  community-level  conditions  and  individual-level  clinical  factors  independently  and  jointly  modify  the  relationship  between  heat  exposure  and  cardiovascular  events.  Community  areas  with  greater  social  vulnerability  experienced  higher  excess  mortality  during  heat  events,  consistent  with  the  hypothesis  that  neighborhood  context  plays  a  critical  role  in  population-level  susceptibility.  At  the  same  time,  individual-level  analyses  confirmed  that  prior  clinical  features  contribute  significantly  to  HRCVD  risk;  some  of  which  is  known  in  the  literature  and  some  of  which  represent  novel  findings.  Together,  these  results  demonstrate  the  value  of  integrating  ecological  and  clinical  data  using  computational  phenotyping  to  improve  risk  stratification  and  guide  targeted  prevention  efforts.  By  bridging  ecological  and  patient-level  perspectives,  this  work  supports  targeted  public  health  strategies  and  clinical  interventions  that  can  better  mitigate  the  cardiovascular  impacts  of  a  warming  climate.
■590    ▼aSchool  code:  0163.
■650  4▼aMedicine
■650  4▼aPublic  health
■650  4▼aEnvironmental  health
■653    ▼aCardiovascular  disease
■653    ▼aClimate  change  
■653    ▼aChicago  
■653    ▼aHealth  data  
■653    ▼aComputational  phenotyping
■690    ▼a0564
■690    ▼a0470
■690    ▼a0573
■71020▼aNorthwestern  University▼bHealth  Sciences  Integrated  PhD  Program.
■7730  ▼tDissertations  Abstracts  International▼g87-03B.
■790    ▼a0163
■791    ▼aPh.D.
■792    ▼a2025
■793    ▼aEnglish
■85640▼uhttp://www.riss.kr/pdu/ddodLink.do?id=T17358907▼nKERIS▼z이  자료의  원문은  한국교육학술정보원에서  제공합니다.

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