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Sampling and Estimation for the Validation of Safety-Critical Autonomous Systems
Sampling and Estimation for the Validation of Safety-Critical Autonomous Systems
Sampling and Estimation for the Validation of Safety-Critical Autonomous Systems

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자료유형  
 학위논문 서양
최종처리일시  
20260202104744
ISBN  
9798290650234
DDC  
629.13309
저자명  
Delecki, Harrison.
서명/저자  
Sampling and Estimation for the Validation of Safety-Critical Autonomous Systems
발행사항  
[Sl] : Stanford University, 2025
발행사항  
Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2025
형태사항  
115 p
주기사항  
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 87-01, Section: A.
주기사항  
Advisor: Kochenderfer, Mykel.
학위논문주기  
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Stanford University, 2025.
초록/해제  
요약There is increasing interest in deploying autonomous systems to domains such as transportation, healthcare, finance, and robotics because of their potential to improve efficiency and safety. These domains are safety-critical; the consequences of system failures can cause loss of human life or other significant costs. Therefore, we require rigorous validation of autonomous systems before deployment in these domains. Traditional safety validation approaches like real-world testing may be extremely expensive and time-consuming. Formal verification techniques are not scalable to complex systems and environments. Falsification methods provide failure examples in simulation, but they do not provide a comprehensive understanding of the system's behavior.In this thesis, we address these limitations by proposing techniques for failure sampling and estimation to validate safety-critical autonomous systems. Given a probabilistic model of system trajectories, our methods aim to sample from the distribution over trajectories that lead to failure (failure sampling) or to estimate the probability of failure (failure estimation). During system development, engineers may use failure sampling to identify failure modes and improve system safety. Failure estimation can be used to quantify the risk of system failure before deployment. Together, these approaches provide a comprehensive understanding of system behavior and enable rigorous safety validation. Previous methods for failure sampling and estimation have been based on Markov chain Monte Carlo, importance sampling, and dynamic programming. Although these methods have been successful in some applications, they have limitations in terms of generality, scalability, and efficiency.Many existing methods for failure sampling and estimation are tailored to specific system models and failure criteria. This makes it difficult to apply these methods in new settings. We present a framework for failure sampling as probabilistic inference. To achieve this, we formulate the simulation of the system under test as a probabilistic program. The probabilistic program easily interfaces with general-purpose inference algorithms, making failure sampling techniques more accessible. Additionally, the probabilistic program easily incorporates some problem-specific knowledge like gradient information, which improves the efficiency of failure sampling.Autonomous systems may have high-dimensional trajectories and exhibit complex failure modes, making failure sampling challenging. Furthermore, many industry-level systems only provide input-output access, meaning that algorithms cannot use any internal system knowledge like gradients to improve scalability. We propose a method for failure sampling in these high-dimensional black-box settings using deep generative models. Our method adaptively trains a diffusion model to sample trajectories that lead to failure. This method scales to problems with thousands of dimensions and multiple failure modes.Methods for estimating the probability of failure often require many samples to achieve accurate estimates. Since failure events are rare and simulations may be complex, this can be computationally expensive. We propose a state-dependent importance sampling method that improves the efficiency of failure estimation. Our method learns a proposal distribution that builds trajectories in a state-dependent manner. The training process focuses on trajectories that are closer to failure.The sampling and estimation algorithms in this work are tested on a variety of problems. A simple inverted pendulum system is used to illustrate important concepts and algorithms. A rule-based autonomous driving policy is tested in a scenario with a pedestrian in a crosswalk. Finally, we validate a model of the ground collision-avoidance autopilot of the F-16 aircraft. Through experiments, we show that the presented methods can improve the generality, scalability, and efficiency of failure sampling and estimation for safety validation of autonomous systems.
일반주제명  
Aviation
일반주제명  
Design
일반주제명  
Traffic accidents & safety
일반주제명  
Autonomous vehicles
기타저자  
Stanford University.
기본자료저록  
Dissertations Abstracts International. 87-01A.
전자적 위치 및 접속  
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■020    ▼a9798290650234
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■035    ▼a(MiAaPQ)Stanfordtz122mx1710
■040    ▼aMiAaPQ▼cMiAaPQ
■0820  ▼a629.13309
■1001  ▼aDelecki,  Harrison.
■24510▼aSampling  and  Estimation  for  the  Validation  of  Safety-Critical  Autonomous  Systems
■260    ▼a[Sl]▼bStanford  University▼c2025
■260  1▼aAnn  Arbor▼bProQuest  Dissertations  &  Theses▼c2025
■300    ▼a115  p
■500    ▼aSource:  Dissertations  Abstracts  International,  Volume:  87-01,  Section:  A.
■500    ▼aAdvisor:  Kochenderfer,  Mykel.
■5021  ▼aThesis  (Ph.D.)--Stanford  University,  2025.
■520    ▼aThere  is  increasing  interest  in  deploying  autonomous  systems  to  domains  such  as  transportation,  healthcare,  finance,  and  robotics  because  of  their  potential  to  improve  efficiency  and  safety.  These  domains  are  safety-critical;  the  consequences  of  system  failures  can  cause  loss  of  human  life  or  other  significant  costs.  Therefore,  we  require  rigorous  validation  of  autonomous  systems  before  deployment  in  these  domains.  Traditional  safety  validation  approaches  like  real-world  testing  may  be  extremely  expensive  and  time-consuming.  Formal  verification  techniques  are  not  scalable  to  complex  systems  and  environments.  Falsification  methods  provide  failure  examples  in  simulation,  but  they  do  not  provide  a  comprehensive  understanding  of  the  system's  behavior.In  this  thesis,  we  address  these  limitations  by  proposing  techniques  for  failure  sampling  and  estimation  to  validate  safety-critical  autonomous  systems.  Given  a  probabilistic  model  of  system  trajectories,  our  methods  aim  to  sample  from  the  distribution  over  trajectories  that  lead  to  failure  (failure  sampling)  or  to  estimate  the  probability  of  failure  (failure  estimation).  During  system  development,  engineers  may  use  failure  sampling  to  identify  failure  modes  and  improve  system  safety.  Failure  estimation  can  be  used  to  quantify  the  risk  of  system  failure  before  deployment.  Together,  these  approaches  provide  a  comprehensive  understanding  of  system  behavior  and  enable  rigorous  safety  validation.  Previous  methods  for  failure  sampling  and  estimation  have  been  based  on  Markov  chain  Monte  Carlo,  importance  sampling,  and  dynamic  programming.  Although  these  methods  have  been  successful  in  some  applications,  they  have  limitations  in  terms  of  generality,  scalability,  and  efficiency.Many  existing  methods  for  failure  sampling  and  estimation  are  tailored  to  specific  system  models  and  failure  criteria.  This  makes  it  difficult  to  apply  these  methods  in  new  settings.  We  present  a  framework  for  failure  sampling  as  probabilistic  inference.  To  achieve  this,  we  formulate  the  simulation  of  the  system  under  test  as  a  probabilistic  program.  The  probabilistic  program  easily  interfaces  with  general-purpose  inference  algorithms,  making  failure  sampling  techniques  more  accessible.  Additionally,  the  probabilistic  program  easily  incorporates  some  problem-specific  knowledge  like  gradient  information,  which  improves  the  efficiency  of  failure  sampling.Autonomous  systems  may  have  high-dimensional  trajectories  and  exhibit  complex  failure  modes,  making  failure  sampling  challenging.  Furthermore,  many  industry-level  systems  only  provide  input-output  access,  meaning  that  algorithms  cannot  use  any  internal  system  knowledge  like  gradients  to  improve  scalability.  We  propose  a  method  for  failure  sampling  in  these  high-dimensional  black-box  settings  using  deep  generative  models.  Our  method  adaptively  trains  a  diffusion  model  to  sample  trajectories  that  lead  to  failure.  This  method  scales  to  problems  with  thousands  of  dimensions  and  multiple  failure  modes.Methods  for  estimating  the  probability  of  failure  often  require  many  samples  to  achieve  accurate  estimates.  Since  failure  events  are  rare  and  simulations  may  be  complex,  this  can  be  computationally  expensive.  We  propose  a  state-dependent  importance  sampling  method  that  improves  the  efficiency  of  failure  estimation.  Our  method  learns  a  proposal  distribution  that  builds  trajectories  in  a  state-dependent  manner.  The  training  process  focuses  on  trajectories  that  are  closer  to  failure.The  sampling  and  estimation  algorithms  in  this  work  are  tested  on  a  variety  of  problems.  A  simple  inverted  pendulum  system  is  used  to  illustrate  important  concepts  and  algorithms.  A  rule-based  autonomous  driving  policy  is  tested  in  a  scenario  with  a  pedestrian  in  a  crosswalk.  Finally,  we  validate  a  model  of  the  ground  collision-avoidance  autopilot  of  the  F-16  aircraft.  Through  experiments,  we  show  that  the  presented  methods  can  improve  the  generality,  scalability,  and  efficiency  of  failure  sampling  and  estimation  for  safety  validation  of  autonomous  systems.
■590    ▼aSchool  code:  0212.
■650  4▼aAviation
■650  4▼aDesign
■650  4▼aTraffic  accidents  &  safety
■650  4▼aAutonomous  vehicles
■690    ▼a0389
■71020▼aStanford  University.
■7730  ▼tDissertations  Abstracts  International▼g87-01A.
■790    ▼a0212
■791    ▼aPh.D.
■792    ▼a2025
■793    ▼aEnglish
■85640▼uhttp://www.riss.kr/pdu/ddodLink.do?id=T17358732▼nKERIS▼z이  자료의  원문은  한국교육학술정보원에서  제공합니다.

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